Discussing the Fate of China - January 1939
Discussing the Fate of China
They were sitting in the office of General Hata in the headquarters in Beijing discussing the latest military events and outlining a strategy for the next month. But Ishiwara Kanji had something else on his mind. He was pondering a broader problem.
„We will have to decide soon what we really want to do with China, General.”
“Yes, yes, I agree. Did you get any new intelligence reports on their will to fight, General Okamura?”
Okamura was an enigmatic man, fitting for one who had worked for the intelligence section of the general staff. His bespectacled face was never betraying any emotions and neither did his calm voice. His stance on things was always hard to understand as he usually described everything from various viewpoints without saying which one he preferred.
“I talked to intelligence yesterday about this and according to our intelligence officers’ estimate they won’t keep up the fight for much longer. Chiang is more and more isolated in their leadership and we have received another clandestine offer via intermediaries from the faction around Wang Jingwei to make peace. They want to cede considerable territories along the coastlines and in the Northwest to us. They want a more or less independent rump state though.”
Hata nodded and weighed what he had heard. He had always been a thinker, not one to quickly make decisions or come to conclusion. However, when he had made a decision, it was usually well thought out and it was hard to win a debate with him. He had a certain gravitas when he spoke too.
“Yes, but we already discussed this before. This war’s goal has to remain to defeat the Nationalist leadership once and for all. If we accept this compromise now, we’ll be at war with them again in two, five or ten years from now. Our interests in China can only be served when we deal them a crushing blow now. General Ishiwara, Have you heard from the war ministry? What is their current plan when we have broken all resistance?”
Major General Ishiwara Kanji, Lieutenant General Okamura Yasuji
“I don’t really know. It changes so often and they don’t really tell us. I will call Lieutenant General Nakajima and ask him to send us the latest plans so we can comment on them. I think the recent plan to keep all of China under direct military occupation doesn’t make sense. We will never be able to administrate the whole country and we will also never be able to do so against the local political elites. What we should do is try to set up a puppet government like we did in Manchukuo and Mengukuo and give them some leeway with domestic policy and administrative tasks while controlling them militarily and economically.”
“Yes, I agree, that would be the wisest course. Any other plan would require way too many occupation troops. We will need the army to fight, not to occupy even after this war is concluded. At the moment the garrisons along our Northern border with Russia are pitifully weak.”
Russia wasn’t on Ishiwara’s mind when he thought of future uses for the army. The peoples of East Asia should be freed from the European yoke. And the army would be needed for that. He didn’t care too much for the North. Japan’s and Asia’s future was in the South. They would have to confront the Europeans eventually. For now, they were way too powerful, but with tensions in Europe intensifying you could never know what the future would bring. Japan had profited from the Great War too and occupied some islands and increased its influence in China.
“Yes, we should lobby for this in the war ministry, General. You have to convince the other generals that it is impossible to control a country the size of China. We need to institute local administrations and bind them to our will. That’s the only possibility.”
“Yes, I’ll discuss this in the war council and minister Itagaki when I fly back to Tokyo on Thursday. I am pretty sure the other field commanders will have a similar opinion. In fact I know that Terauchi has similar thoughts. I am sure we will be able to convince the staff members and the politicians.”
Ishiwara hoped that Hata would be right. The plan to occupy the whole country would end in a mess. They already had problems with bandits and partisans disrupting their supply lines and communist guerilla committed strikes against their personnel and installations regularly only to blend in with the masses again. It wasn’t a moral solution, but it certainly was the most advantageous solution for the Japanese Army: let the Chinese fight among each other.