Episode 17
The War in the Atlantic
June 13 - December 31, 1938
My first two submarine squadrons reached their stations in the Atlantic Ocean on June 13, marking the beginning of my offensive in the war at sea. Because the war has started somewhat sooner than I had planned
I had only two squadrons ready but another 8 would roll off the production lines on June 23 and be operational and sent to sea by mid-July.
I was very excited to test how submarines would fare in Hoi3 because I had read complaints by players that they were everything from too powerful to not powerful enough. Back in Hoi2 the general consensus seemed to be that submarines were a hassle, too much micromanagement if you were to avoid getting your subs sunk and that with the huge stockpiles allowed in that version of the game a historic recreation of the war in the Atlantic and the threat to the United Kingdom was simply not possible.
A
famous test by blue Emu contradicted this somewhat, but even blue Emu had to use what I would call huge numbers of submarines, rotating them continuously, to produce a significant impact in the war.
Having only 10 submarine squadrons, I was prepared to see only limited results, having to keep a third of them on 'reserve' orders in port and also over time having to replace a significant number of them due to the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) efforts of the Royal Navy.
Italy also joined in the war against Allied shipping as soon as the war broke out in Europe. In the last half of 1938 they lost a singe of their 12 submarine squadrons. I cannot determine the precise impact of Italian submarines and naval bombers because I do not know how many Allied convoys pass through the Med and I don't know how well the AI uses forces for convoy raiding. But Italy could, potentially, have achieved results similar to mine.
Sea Wolves Rule Beneath the Waves
At the start of the game, the United Kingdom had 80 available transports and 71 available escorts. Just before the outbreak of the war in May 1938 that number was 377 available transports and 71 available escorts. Oddly enough, despite the increase in numbers and presumably a greater number of trades that need maintaining in 1938, the UK did not have any practicals in May 1938 that could decrease time and IC spent on building new transports and escorts.
But I suspect that the United Kingdom alone must have had a total of 600+ transports by the time war breaks out in Europe on June 1 1938.
At this time my subs had most of the 1937 and 1938 techs and doctrines but nothing researched ahead of time.
In the 5½ months from June 13 to December 31 1938, German submarines sank a total of 760 Allied transports and 60 Allied escorts = a total of 820 Allied ships.
I'll just say that again: 760 transports and 60 escorts in 5½ months.
My losses in that same time period? None. Not a single squadron.
Twice in 5½ months my submarines were engaged -accidentally I suspect - by the Royal Navy. In both cases I had a positioning of 95% versus the Royal Navy's approximately 10% positioning. This meant that in both cases I could easily outdistance most of the enemy fleet and escape with my submarine squadron reduced to about 40 str/org and retreat to repairs in a safe port.
The rest of my submarine squadrons were at sea 24/7 for 5½ months. I simply gave them the convoy raiding order and assigned them each a zone creating a net covering the ocean southwest and west of the UK and France.
Annihilation of the Allied Merchant Fleet
I must admit, I was surprised at the efficiency of submarines in Hoi3 and the lack of an efficient response from the Royal Navy. Both problems need some serious addressing from the game developers to create a better game balance.
This is a list of how many Allied transports and escorts were sunk in 1938:
June - 28 transports, 5 escorts
July - 107 transports, 25 escorts
August - 155 transports, 11 escorts
September - 141 transports, 0 escorts
October - 158 transports, 9 escorts
November - 119 transports, 0 escorts
December - 52 transports, 0 escorts
The varying numbers reflect different conflicts against members of the Allies throughout the rest of 1938 as well as an intelligent reaction by the AI; once a sea zone becomes too 'hot' to pass through due to losses, the AI will actively try to divert the convoys around it - taking a longer route to avoid the most dangerous areas. This is something I like about the Hoi3 system - but it does not offset the fact that convoys are too easily spotted and sunk and the Royal Navy and other Allied navies are not at all pursuing ASW tasks it seems.
Submarines for Strategic Warfare
I haven't been able to detect how much of an impact these enormous losses have had on Allied National Unity due to the Strategic Warfare factor. My spies seem to report greatly varying levels of National Unity in the UK and France and I also suspect that the Allies have been using the Intelligence system to boost National Unity.
Likewise, the decimation of the Allied merchant fleet had by the end of 1938 in no way significantly impacted the IC of the United Kingdom. As 1939 progresses, this may change but at the moment the stockpiles that the UK created in 1936-1938 are still vast and could keep them going for several years, I suspect.
So, are submarines still worthless in a strategic context? Absolutely not.
First of all, I have a strong suspicion that many of the Allied forces overseas are greatly lacking supplies by New Year 1939. But more importantly, the loss of 820 ships represents a huge loss of IC investment for the Allies. I have no idea how many of the transports and escorts the Allies will try to replace but if the AI prioritises keeping up supply levels overseas then these losses could potentially halt most other Allied production for a considerable time.
Take a look at these numbers. In 1936 a Type IX submarine squadron cost me 4.52 IC for 319 days. Thus, my ten squadrons (minus a minor discount from practicals on the last 8 squadrons) have cost me: 10 x 4.52 x 319 = 14,418.80 IC days.
Constructing a transport costs 2 IC for 100 days and an escort costs 4 IC for 240 days. Thus, replacing 760 convoy transports and 60 convoy escorts is going to cost: (760 x 2 x 100) + (60 x 4 x 240) = 209,600 IC days!!
I haven't calculated how many armoured divisions or tactical bomber wings that is but for my modest investment I have inflicted losses measured in IC days that are 14.54 times higher than my own investment!! :wacko:
Submarine Warfare - An Easy Rise to Stardom
Another grossly unbalanced feature of submarine warfare and convoy raiding in Hoi3 is that every time a submarine squadron attacks a convoy, the commander gets experience and rises in skill and experience.
These are the commanders I have used in my 10 squadron submarine fleet in 1938, their starting skill and their end skill and how much experience they have for gaining another skill point:
Commander Sobe - start skill 1, end skill 6 (99%)
Commander Wolf - start skill 2, end skill 6 (82%)
Commander Claasen - start skill 1, end skill 5 (67%)
Commander Marschall - start skill 4, end skill 5 (84%)
Rear Adm. Saalwächter - start skill 4, end skill 6 (82%)
Commander Densch - start skill 3, end skill 7 (86%)
Commander Lütjens - start skill 3, end skill 5 (77%)
Commander Warzecha - start skill 4, end skill 6 (91%)
Commander Assman - start skill 2, end skill 6 (75%)
Commander von Nordeck - start skill 3, end skill 5 (77%)
Because I in 1938 did not have enough Sea Wolves for all the squadrons, I also used other types of commanders and as you can see they perform outstandingly well also. Even if you, as a player, want to go for a surface Kriegsmarine rather than submarine warfare, building a few submarines and letting them raid convoys for half a year seems like an absurdly easy (gamey) way of getting a handful of naval officers to very high skill level.
Submarine Warfare in 1939
On January 1 1939 I withdrew all my submarines to port. I was actually afraid that the Allied supply situation overseas could become so bad that it could ruin the game. The lack of transports effectively keeps the UK from supplying landings in Europe and quite possibly the forces in Africa are also in bad shape. So to keep the game interesting I withdrew for the time being.
Up Next: Back to Fall Weiss!