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But your side winning and you losing is, under the conditions of the problem, as bad as your side losing and you losing. And like I said, you cannot draw the conclusion that killing the seer reduces the chance of your side winning as if it was an universal conclusion. And no, you didn't screw yourself over, remember, you are playing to win the game. And, if you let things go as normal, the other guy is bound to realize he's got to take you down before you do the same to him.

So, under my initial "play-to-win" condition, your matrix does not represent the situation properly.

As far as I'm concerned your side winning and you losing is more likely if you deliberately kill the seer rival than if you leave him alive and let things happen, under a reasonable set of generalised conditions - of course it's not universal.

If we're not agreeing on that much the rest of the argument is pointless.
 
As far as I'm concerned your side winning and you losing is more likely if you deliberately kill the seer rival than if you leave him alive and let things happen, under a reasonable set of generalised conditions - of course it's not universal.

If we're not agreeing on that much the rest of the argument is pointless.

Game theory plays a crucial role there. But... didn't you mean "your side losing"?

Think like this. You're a rival apprentice. You've been scanned by your rival Seer. Let's assume, for simplicity, that once apprentices are scanned, they are permanently bound to the scanner, otherwise it gets even more lopsided.

Now, you know that dying = game over. And you know that if the Seer dies, you get his scans. Therefore, from your perspective, the death of the Seer = a death of a villager (it is actually preferable, as it fulfills your rival condition), because there are no lost scans, until you die. And after you die, it's game over, so what happens in principle doesn't matter, under the conditions of my problem. So, you don't lose anything from deliberately killing the Seer, in the worst scenario, you die, and the village is left scannerless. If you don't care about the village and want to win, killing your master makes perfect sense.

Obviously, like most things in WW, it isn't without it's exceptions, but those are the exceptions which prove the rule. Things like a cursed guy outing the Seer, instead of you, but that's not a "reasonable set of generalized conditions".
 
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Game theory plays a crucial role there. But... didn't you mean "your side losing"?

I meant something along the lines of "the increase in risk of you surviving but your side losing is greater than the benefit of the reduced risk of your side winning but you losing". Understandably I tried to simplify that mouthful, but screwed up the simplification a little.
 
I meant something along the lines of "the increase in risk of you surviving but your side losing is greater than the benefit of the reduced risk of your side winning but you losing". Understandably I tried to simplify that mouthful, but screwed up the simplification a little.

Read my edit.
 
Now, you know that dying = game over. And you know that if the Seer dies, you get his scans. Therefore, from your perspective, the death of the Seer = a death of a villager (it is actually preferable, as it fulfills your rival condition), because there are no lost scans, until you die. And after you die, it's game over, so what happens in principle doesn't matter, under the conditions of my problem. So, you don't lose anything from deliberately killing the Seer, in the worst scenario, you die, and the village is left scannerless. If you don't care about the village and want to win, killing your master makes perfect sense.

You only get the scans if the seer tells you. You do lose something, an extra life for the most important goodie in the game. And that extra life can be a big deal - here it allowed Johho and Nautilu to be turned into an ersatz JL, rather than werewolf chew toys. It improves the odds of your side winning, which is just as necessary to you winning as your rival being dead. The question is which condition is harder to achieve - I think team win, you think rival dead.

This is all assuming the seer scans you though, which didn't happen the two times I've seen seer-apprentice rivalry. An interesting approach would be to look to be scanned by the sorceror, based purely off a guess you're an apprentice rival to the seer. That might get my endorsement as clever play.
 
You only get the scans if the seer tells you. You do lose something, an extra life for the most important goodie in the game. And that extra life can be a big deal - here it allowed Johho and Nautilu to be turned into an ersatz JL, rather than werewolf chew toys. It improves the odds of your side winning, which is just as necessary to you winning as your rival being dead. The question is which condition is harder to achieve - I think team win, you think rival dead.

This is all assuming the seer scans you though, which didn't happen the two times I've seen seer-apprentice rivalry. An interesting approach would be to look to be scanned by the sorceror, based purely off a guess you're an apprentice rival to the seer. That might get my endorsement as clever play.

You don't lose an extra life, the village does. From your perspective, when you lose your life, you're dead. You don't have any extra lives, your (or your master's role has. Team winning, conditional to you winning, is not necessarily or even likely to be made harder because you got rid of the Seer.

That approach isn't likely to work, because the Seer would likely put you up as a priority for being scanned. If you don't get scanned, it is usually because the Seer is already trying to find a way to get rid of you, and thus is not interested in wasting the scan.
I would probably still scan you, just in case you happen to be a cultist (and I'd be a Priest), so I could expand my options to get you killed without compromising my position.

Again, let me try to put it in a clearer enunciation. You are an apprentice, and you want to win, and to win, you need to kill the Seer, who had you scanned and claimed.

So, scenario 1, Seer dies and you take over. The village still has one Seer, so no change in scanned guys, and no backups for that Seer, which, in your perspective, is totally irrelevant, because when those backups apply, you have already lost, so we can exclude that from our reasoning.
Scenario 2, Seer doesn't die and he doesn't kill you. The village still only has 1 Seer, with a backup. From the perspective of the village, it is preferable to scenario 1 and 3, but from your perspective, it is not, because you are further away from victory, and the Seer likely has more clout than you if he wants to get you lynched.
Scenario 3, Seer doesn't die and he kills you. Game over.
Scenario 4, Both you and the Seer die.

So, from your selfish perspective, scenario 1 is clearly the best, so it makes sense to strive for it. However, there's a small danger to fail and trigger scenario 4, if both the Seer and the rival get each other killed. Nevertheless, your optimal choice, regardless of what your rival does, is to try to get your rival to die. If your rival doesn't do anything, you win (by now being with nearly the same (-1 villager) base chance of winning, probably even with better chances due to the impact of a Seer death in the game). If your rival does the same, you lose, but you would also lose if you didn't do anything, in that situation. Which is why I referred to the Nash Equilibrium and game theory.
 
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Not sure if you're mixing this up or not but Nash equilibrium does not mean both players are making the optimal or 'superior' or whatever choices. That's making the dominant strategy. Both (or all) players can be better served leaving Nash equilibrium together. Just throwing that in.
 
Not sure if you're mixing this up or not but Nash equilibrium does not mean both players are making the optimal or 'superior' or whatever choices. That's making the dominant strategy. Both (or all) players can be better served leaving Nash equilibrium together. Just throwing that in.

Nash Equilibrium means that neither of the players, alone, has anything to gain from changing position. Of course, if they both manage to make a deal and both avoid killing each other, well, they will be better off than if both of them tried to kill each other. However, cheating on that deal is always advantageous, as you will get an even better outcome if you cheat and the other guy doesn't.
 
Nash Equilibrium means that neither of the players, alone, has anything to gain from changing position.

Yes.
However, cheating on that deal is always advantageous, as you will get an even better outcome if you cheat and the other guy doesn't.

This however, does not follow. It's not universally true of a Nash equilibrium case, which was my point. And I'd certainly say it's not universally true of any game with rivals. Basically the bigger the game is, the more apt it is to say that rivals are irrelevant, so long as you both let that be the case. If either player doesn't, both will be hurt. The 'cheater' less so, but still.
 
Not really. I've explained some ways the cheater can take advantage, and also denied that both get hurt either way, as in the selfish point of view of the rival, getting rid of the rival is like killing a villager, in regards to your chances of victory (in fact, it's better due to the rival condition being fulfilled).
 
Well, if you want to disagree, feel free. Judging from the way most play the role, they're with you already. I was just pointing out that reaching a Nash equilibrium does not mean everyone's playing perfectly. Any number of equilibria are possible in one game.
 
It seems you didn't quite understood my stance. The thing with Nash Equilibrium is that there is always a strong compulsion to cheat on the deal, even though it could actually be better to reach an arrangement rather than having each of the rivals going all out to kill the other.

Also, I was referring only to the case of same side apprentice-scanner pairings, when defining the Equilibrium. Of course, the Equilibrium does change, but the fundamental tenet of Nash's equilibrium holds true in all but really extraordinary cases (such as the aforementioned cursed guy outing your rival to the baddies instead of you), although I can't think of a rival situation which challenges the notion that trying to kill your rival ASAP, regardless of what the other player does, is the most sound individual strategy.

And Nash's equilibrium have nothing to do with being perfect. They are an example of how optimal individual options might have worse outcomes than suboptimal individual options.
 
All the last page can just goover my head.. I never use Rivals when i GM, but that not very often with work anyhow. So pointless me saying. Just thought id say something un-interesting. :)
 
The really, really old lover-lover-rival setup where the rival had to kill of one of the lovers (who didn't know he even had a rival much less who he was) to replace him and then survive with the other lover. I'm sure there was a good reason we stopped using that but maybe this Nash guy could explain why?
 
Thanks Rendap for a good game.. Hope the Cap and Kiwi hasn't put you off with the rest of the AAR with their blabbering.. ;)

EDIT: Ohh And Congrats to the winners you lousy, cheap, scruffy babykillers..

Don't worry - I'll get it written up, but have had some rough days at work. Should continue with it tomorrow or Thursday.
 
Thanks Rendap for a good game.. Hope the Cap and Kiwi hasn't put you off with the rest of the AAR with their blabbering.. ;)

EDIT: Ohh And Congrats to the winners you lousy, cheap, scruffy babykillers..

The Cap and Kiwi? I could get used to having two lives and two votes...
 
Yeah but... why on earth would he kill himself??? The village is about to get massacred, sin't it?

It's the_hdk. He tends to go for losing honorably. If he knows the game is lost, he'll just vote himself to get it over with.
Congratulations for winning the game with my role, by the way :)